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Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Does Bernanke Have the Best Inflation Record

In his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, boldly declared: “You called me a dove. Well, maybe in some respects I am, but on the other hand, my inflation record is the best of any Federal Reserve chairman in the postwar period, or at least one of the best, about 2 percent average inflation.” (To which the Twitterverse responded, #ohsnap.)

Does he really have the best inflation record Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, crunched the numbers.

“If the definition of ‘best’ is 2 percent inflation, then it’s hard to question his record, as he is spot on that number,” Mr. Feroli wrote in a note to clients.

Other Fed chairmen have had lower inflation rates; Eugene Meyer’s tenure, from 1930 to 1933, averaged negative 9 percent inflation, whch is not exactly desirable. But Mr. Feroli calculates that no one in the postwar period had a lower inflation track record.

Here are his calculations for the average rate of inflation for Fed chairmen, using the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for as far back as it goes (to 1947) and the headline Consumer Price Index in the years before then:

ChairmanYearsAverage inflation rate (%)
Daniel R. Crissinger1923-270.9
Roy A. Young1927-30-0.9
Eugene Meyer1930-33-9
Eugene Black1933-341.3
Marriner Eccles1934-483.6
Thomas McCabe1948-512.6
William McChesney Martin Jr.1951-702.2
Arthur F. Burns1970-786.2
G. William Miller1978-798.8
Paul Volcker1979-875.3
Alan Greenspan1987-20062.6
Ben S. Bernanke2006-Present2


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