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Friday, July 5, 2013

For the Employment Rate, an Uptick

The share of American adults with jobs rose slightly in June, to 58.7 percent. That matches the highest level since the end of the recession in 2009, but remains well below the prevailing level before the recession.

The chart shows the long-term trend: a sharp drop, a prolonged stagnation and maybe, just maybe, the beginning of a recovery.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The employment rate has not moved much in recent years because job growth since the end of the recession has basically kept pace with population growth.

The more familiar unemployment rate has declined significantly, but it counts people as unemployed only if they are looking for work. It has declined because people stopped looking, not because they started working.

Thus the importance of tracking the employment rate.

Economists, including Federal Reserve officials, say they expect that as the economy continues to grow, and the unemployment rate continues to decline, discouraged workers will start seeking - and finding - work again.

Until that happens, however, the recovery is incomplete.



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