The monthly jobs report is widely viewed as the most important economic statistic, and lots of people â€" myself included â€" rush out instant analysis.
We should remember that the numbers we jump all over are likely to turn out to have been very different from the final figures.
The first report of March numbers showed a gain of just 88,000 jobs. There was concern. Then the first report for April showed a gain of 165,000. The economy rallied, we concluded.
The current estimates for those months are gains of 142,000 in March and 149,000 in April. The figures are virtually identical.
Michael Shaoul of Marketfield Asset Management called those numbers “a reminder of how the data is not only volatile but also often subject to massive revision.â€
The employment situation is important. But what you see today about May employment may turn out to be nowhere near the final number.
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