What to Look For in Friday’s Jobs Report

Did hiring pick up in January, or are we in for a repeat of December’s disappointing jobs report?

That’s what Wall Street and Washington are wondering ahead of the Labor Department’s latest monthly figures on job creation and unemployment, to be released at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

The consensus forecast calls for an addition of 180,000 to payrolls last month, with the unemployment rate remaining at 6.7 percent.

But beware the consensus. Before the December report, which came out in early January, economists had predicted an addition of 200,000 jobs. The actual figure for December, just 74,000, was the slowest pace of job creation in three years.

After that disappointment, many economists suggested that wintry weather in December had caused the figure to come in low, sapping job gains in sectors like construction.

Friday’s report should tell us whether that indeed was the case, or whether there is a more fundamental loss of momentum at work.

Michael Gapen, senior United States economist at Barclays, estimates that the economy added 175,000 jobs in January, bringing job creation in line with the three-month average of 172,000, with the unemployment rate flat at 6.7 percent.

Still, he is quick to add that this time around,  “there’s a higher degree of uncertainty than in normal reports.”

On the one hand, if weather was a factor in December, job growth could have rebounded in January as delayed hiring from December got counted, making an upside surprise possible.

Despite what seems like an endless series of snowstorms on the East Coast, the reference week for the survey was Jan. 12-18, when conditions were fairly normal as Januaries go, reducing the impact of another weather-related hit.

On the other hand, Mr. Gapen said, January traditionally has the largest seasonal adjustment factor of any month, making Friday’s report especially hard to predict.